1/16/2023 0 Comments Will we have another lockdownIf an early lockdown is just an isolated temporary measure, accompanied by no other precautions like reducing work contacts, wearing masks, reducing social gatherings, then, indeed, it has very little effect in reducing the total number of infections that accumulate in the long run. Some have claimed that lockdowns merely delay, but do not reduce (in the long run) infections, and so really just buy time to get the health system ready to deal with the peak of the coming wave. So the question becomes – is there a way to use lockdown measures carefully, so that the direct and indirect costs are bearable? And to this there is no uncontroversial answer – because we cannot objectively attribute values to all the relevant ‘costs’, ‘effects’ and ‘benefits’, as they are called by health economists.īut we can at least see that some options are clearly better than others. We also know that lockdowns bring ‘collateral damage’ in the form of jobs lost, contracts not wanted, companies making losses and going under – and the way these costs are borne/distributed among the population is partly a political matter, not just some sort of revenge of the fates. One year on, there is still heated debate about lockdowns, and various vested interests are understandably gearing up to fight any whiff of further tough measures against this or that particular industry – catering, alcohol, travel, tobacco.īut we know that some lockdown measures achieve their intended aim of making it difficult to transmit SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes Covid-19. This means we have some decisions to make so that if the next wave turns out to be another big one, we don’t miss a chance to take the edge off. Unless we think we are about to hit some sort of jackpot, infection rates can only go up. So when does it make sense to introduce tougher measures?Īs of March 31, infection rates are bumbling along with minor daily fluctuations – showing signs neither of fading further, nor of resurging. President Ramaphosa introduced comparatively minor lockdown restrictions on Tuesday night: limits on the size of gatherings, and no alcohol off-sales over the Eastern weekend.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |